Rising Listings, Selective Buyers, and Market Adjustments
In the third quarter of 2024, the real estate markets in Stowe, Lamoille County, and Waterbury, Vermont, exhibited diverse yet interrelated trends, reflecting broader economic conditions and local market dynamics. Each area displayed its unique market adjustments, with varying degrees of activity across single-family homes and condo segments.
Stowe:
In Q3 2024, Stowe's real estate market saw a mixed performance in both single-family homes and condos. In Q3 we continued to see homes sell for less and take more time to sell from the peak and years directly after the Covid market. This has become more pronounced during Q3 2024 with the average days on market increasing 140% year over year and median days on market rose by 87.50%, while this can be attributed to higher priced homes, over $2M taking longer to sell, it is a trend to be taken into consideration across all price points. The single-family home market experienced a 33.33% increase in properties sold, indicating stronger market activity. Average and median sold prices saw notable rises of 13.61% and 43.79%, respectively, showcasing a trend toward higher-value transactions. New listings increased by 17.14%, signaling increased seller activity. While the increase in days on market is an important trend to monitor, it's worth noting that properties that were priced appropriately were still seeing relatively quick sales. Although there were price reductions for new listings and longer days on the market in the third quarter, the increase in average and median prices suggests that property values are holding steady in our market.
In the condo segment, Stowe experienced an 81.82% increase in properties sold. However, the average and median sold prices dropped by 32.74% and 34.38%, respectively, likely due to increased inventory and competition. New listings surged by 157.14%, but the average days on market dropped significantly by 90.56%. Several of these numbers are driven by the Mt. Side Condo development which transitions from fractional ownership to whole ownership on over 30 units. Many of these have traded without hitting the market, Coldwell Banker Carlson Real Estate is representing these units, and has access to all off market units. Outside of this development the market is showing that competitively priced condos were moving faster despite the overall price corrections.
Q3 2024 also saw the implementation of the new state transfer tax increase on second home purchases from 1.47% to 3.62% as well as new property assessments and tax increases. Since these new increases directly impact buyers, it’s important to factor them into proper market positioning. We expect their impact to continue to unfold over the next several quarters.
Key Statistics:
- Single-Family Homes:
- Properties Sold: +33.33%
- Average Sold Price: +13.61%
- Median Sold Price: +43.79%
- New Listings: +17.14%
- Average Days on Market: +140%
- Median Days on Market: +87.50%
- Condos:
- Properties Sold: +81.82%
- New Listings: +157.14%
- Average Sold Price: -32.74%
- Median Sold Price: -34.38%
- Average Days on Market: -90.56%
- Median Days on Market: -91.14%
Lamoille County:
The real estate market in Lamoille County in Q3 2024 experienced a moderate increase in overall activity, with an 8.05% rise in properties sold across all property types. Average sold prices rose by 17.77%, and the median sold price increased by 14.92%. New listings surged by 50.38%, indicating higher seller confidence. The average days on market decreased by 28.57%, while the median days on market rose by 9.09%, indicating that while more properties were entering the market, some were taking longer to close. Historically when we see our market transition from a seller's market to a buyer's market areas outside of Stowe tend to see the first signs of a slower market. The statistics indicate this to be true.
In specific areas of Lamoille County:
- Morristown saw an 83% increase in new available single-family homes and a 73% increase in properties sold, with a 6.97% rise in median sold prices.
- Johnson experienced a 7.14% decline in available listings and a 50% in properties sold, but the median sold price jumped by 66%.
- Hyde Park saw an 88% increase in available single-family homes but faced a 91% drop in overall sales, with a 46% increase in median sold prices.
Key Statistics:
- All Property Types:
- Properties Sold: +8.05%
- Average Sold Price: +17.77%
- Median Sold Price: +14.92%
- New Listings: +50.38%
- Average Days on Market: -28.57%
- Median Days on Market: +9.09%
Waterbury:
Waterbury’s real estate market experienced a downturn in activity for single-family homes in Q3 2024. The number of properties sold dropped by 43.75%, and the average sold price decreased by 13.82%, while the median sold price saw a slight dip of 0.27%. Despite the drop in sales, new listings rose significantly by 86.67%, indicating a potential oversupply, which would be the first time this has occurred in the Waterbury market in over 10 years. The average days on market increased by 11.11%, but the median days on market decreased by 40%, suggesting that well-priced properties were still moving quickly. Looking forward into Q4 we expect to see the sales volume in Waterbury increase.
Key Statistics:
- Single-Family Homes:
- Properties Sold: -43.75%
- Average Sold Price: -13.82%
- Median Sold Price: -0.27%
- New Listings: +86.67%
- Average Days on Market: +11.11%
- Median Days on Market: -40%
Overall Market Insights:
The third quarter of 2024 saw a mixed performance across the Stowe, Lamoille County, and Waterbury real estate markets. Stowe and Lamoille County exhibited sustained growth in transaction volume and property values, especially in the single-family home segment. However, increased inventory and longer sales cycles in Stowe’s market and Waterbury’s declining sales suggest that strategic pricing will be key for sellers going into the next quarter. Buyers are becoming more selective and we have seen price corrections across our entire market, which usually indicates a shifting market. As we move into Q4, the combination of increased inventory and state and external economic factors, may exert downward pressure on the market, necessitating careful navigation by both buyers and sellers. Consulting with local real estate experts will be crucial for making informed decisions in this evolving market landscape.
